Over the years we have honed our skills to raise various animals for our market. Each animal presents its own set of challenges. However, knowing and having such a close and direct relationship with our customers has always helped us. We have been able to get direct feedback and have conversations about what exactly you are looking for in the food you get from Carlton Farms. Generally, production methods and feed are the primary concerns we hear about. We have been able to build systems around pasture-based production for all of our animals that have proven to work well. We have also been able to take the lead on building the infrastructure necessary for localized, non-GMO feed options in our area. Like any business or craft (farming is a combination of both), once the basics are figured out, then you start to fine-tune the details. This can be, and usually is the harder part. For instance, we have been raising some delicious pasture-raised turkeys for several years. After Thanksgiving, we get many phone calls, emails, social media posts, etc... about how fantastic the turkey was. It's true, I cook at least one for our family each year. They are amazing. Just yesterday, my mom said, "Remember to save us a turkey. And by the way, go ahead and cook it before you bring it over.🤣". So, many years of experience and testimonials provide evidence that we can grow a fine-tasting turkey. However, one detail was eluding us. The proper size turkey. It's true, each family has different needs, but generally, most people want a turkey within a certain range. Say 12-18 pounds. For years we had such a hard time getting this detail right. One year the turkeys were way too big (we had a few 26-pounders), other years they were way too small (an 11 lb average is not good). This is a detail that I was determined to fix, but there were several complications.
First Complication: Our limited local processing capacity. We still do not have robust poultry processing options, although it is better than it was a few years ago. We have to schedule processing in January for turkeys that will be harvested in October. It's crazy, but that is what we have to do. On the farm with a particular set of animals, a lot can happen from January to October.
Second Complication: Hatchery Scheduling can be as problematic as the processing. If we have a specific processing date and know approximately how old the birds need to be at processing, then the hatchery has to cooperate... sometimes they don't.
Third Complication: Weather is always a concerning variable on the farm. If it's a hot summer the turkeys will eat less and grow slower. During a mild summer, the birds will eat more consistently and hence grow a little faster. Those wouldn't be such problems if the schedule didn't have to be made months in advance.
Like solutions to most complicated problems, this one ended up being a little complicated itself. I decided we needed to start a little earlier to not be up so close to the thanksgiving deadline. This helped with scheduling the processor and gave us built-in flexibility. We also need closer observation of our birds, so we knew where we were on weights at any moment. We devised a way to mount a scale to our feed truck that we tend the turkeys with. Once per week we would weigh 5 female and 5 male turkeys. This gives some good data, but we needed to be able to forecast. Some of you probably know that I have an MBA, so I dusted off some of those old excel skills and went to work. We created a spreadsheet of all the weights we recorded, separated by male and female because they grow at much different rates, then extrapolated what the processed weight would be based on the live weight. Once that data was collected I was able to run a regression analysis to predict what the weight would be of both subgroups at any point in the future. This was the final step that allowed us to dial in the appropriate weights for these turkeys. Knowing where the turkeys would be weight-wise in the future allowed us to compare that to our already scheduled processing date. Meaning that if we did need to approach the processor requesting a date change, we could do so well in advance.
We are still working on getting this perfect, but we are much better than we have been in the past. This year the bulk of our turkeys ranged from 11-17 lbs. In a perfect world, I would have added 1 pound to that range. I think 12-18 is just right, but we will celebrate this as a win.
Now, raise your hand if you guessed that a regression analysis was used to raise your pasture-raised thanksgiving turkey. 😉 I am so thankful for each of you that read this email, support our farm, and choose to vote with your dollars to support a local food system. I hope you all enjoy a fine turkey, and all of your thanksgiving season.
